Where the series comes from
Four lines of algebra, with nothing hidden in them. Every accumulation figure on this site is this derivation evaluated at two numbers somebody typed in.
Educational arithmetic only. Not medical advice and not a dosing protocol.
The derivation
Let one amount be the unit, and let r be the
fraction of it still present after exactly one interval:
r = 0.5interval ÷ half-life
Immediately after the first amount, 1 is present. One interval later, r
remains, and the second amount brings the total to 1 + r. One interval after
that, r(1 + r) = r + r² remains and the third brings it to
1 + r + r². After n amounts:
peakn = 1 + r + r² + ... + rn-1
which is a finite geometric series and sums to:
peakn = (1 - rn) ÷ (1 - r)
Since 0 < r < 1, rn goes to zero as n grows,
so the peaks approach 1 ÷ (1 - r) from below and never reach it. The
trough just before the next amount is the peak multiplied by r.
| After amount | Peak, as a fraction | Peak | Trough before the next |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.500 |
| 2 | 3/2 | 1.500 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 7/4 | 1.750 | 0.875 |
| 4 | 15/8 | 1.875 | 0.938 |
| 5 | 31/16 | 1.938 | 0.969 |
| 6 | 63/32 | 1.969 | 0.984 |
What the derivation assumes
Four things, in order. That the whole of each amount is available immediately, which no subcutaneous injection satisfies. That elimination is first-order at a constant proportional rate, which is an approximation. That each amount is identical to the last. And that nothing about the system changes between one repeat and the next.
Each of those is a modelling assumption rather than arithmetic, and each is printed with every result the worksheet produces, in that order. A figure from this model is a statement about the model.
Why the limit is approached rather than reached
Because
rn is never exactly zero. Each repeat closes the remaining gap to
the limit by a factor of r, so the approach is geometric: fast at first and then slower
without ever finishing. At r = 0.5 the gap halves each time, which is why seven intervals
gets within one percent and fourteen gets within a hundredth of one.
Past a certain point the arithmetic saturates for a different reason: in double-precision
floating point, 1 - rn rounds to exactly 1 once
rn falls below about 1e-16, and the computed peak becomes exactly
the limit. That is the hardware being honest rather than a defect, and it is why the test
suite for this arithmetic checks monotonicity with a non-strict inequality far out and a
strict one early on.
Where the useful reading is
Not in the limit, which is the figure people quote, but in the two columns either side of it: the fraction surviving a gap, which says how much of the previous amount is still in play, and the number of intervals to approach the limit, which says how long the arithmetic takes to settle. A limit of 10 reached after forty intervals and a limit of 2 reached after seven describe completely different situations.
Both figures appear on every page of the half-life and interval families for that reason.